Educational research only—not investment advice or a recommendation. Scores and estimates may use delayed, incomplete, restated, or corrected market and filing data. Independently verify information before making an investment decision.
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Primary reporting period: 2025-12-31 · Research updated Oct 11, 2026. A research update is not a new financial filing.
Who they are
Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology firm, is dedicated to the discovery, development, and commercialization of messenger RNA (mRNA) based therapies and preventive medicines. Its extensive research and development efforts target a broad spectrum of medical needs, including infectious diseases, cancer immunology, rare conditions, cardiovascular ailments, and autoimmune disorders, with operations spanning the United States, Europe, and other global markets. The company's diverse product pipeline encompasses various vaccine candidates: those for respiratory illnesses like COVID-19, influenza, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV); latent viral infections such as cytomegalovirus (CMV), Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), herpes simplex virus (HSV), and varicella-zoster virus (VZV); and public health threats like Zika and Nipah.
How they make money
Moderna is a biotechnology company that develops and commercializes messenger RNA (mRNA) medicines. The company generates revenue primarily through the sale of its mRNA-based vaccines and therapeutic candidates, supported by strategic collaborations and licensing agreements with pharmaceutical partners.
Products & services
Moderna's primary commercial product is its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine, including the mNEXSPIKE product launched in 2025. The company also maintains a pipeline of mRNA-based therapeutic candidates for various diseases.
Brands & revenue mix
mNEXSPIKE
Leading COVID-19 vaccine product in the U.S. retail channel.
Separate brand revenue is not available in this research.Source
Revenue share is not unit sales or a best-seller ranking. Parent brands and included sub-brands can overlap; do not add overlapping rows.
Calculated from reported segment revenue. Check the source period and revenue basis before comparing shares. Categories can overlap and may not add to 100%.
Geographic revenue
No reconciled geographic revenue breakdown was confirmed for the current research period.
The company's revenue is subject to concentration risks related to government and public health agency procurement of COVID-19 vaccines, as disclosed in the 2025 Form 10-K.
Suppliers, materials & equipment
Contract Manufacturing Organizations — Third-party entities contracted to manufacture, supply, and distribute products, drug substances, and delivery vehicles.Source
Business relationships & partnerships
Merck — Strategic collaboration for the development and commercialization of mRNA-based cancer vaccines.Source
Vertex — Strategic collaboration for the development of mRNA-based therapies for cystic fibrosis.Source
These are saved observations about business performance, not predictions. Review the company filings alongside the interpretation below. Latest stored financial period end: 2026-06-30.
Total debt increased 73.7% versus the same quarter last year.
Compare the added borrowing with available cash, cash generation and maturities. A percentage increase from a small starting balance can look large without measuring the full debt burden.
Wall Street Score
Overall investment score · Quality, value, risk and opportunity
17
Poor
PoorElite
View category scores →
Company Quality
How good is the actual business—regardless of today’s stock price?
29
Poor
Financial Strength
30
Business Quality / Moat
50
Management
0
Growth Quality
45
Risk / Durability
10
Weak Company · Expensive Stock
Uses financial strength, moat, management, growth quality and durability. It excludes share price, P/E, market cap, intrinsic value and margin of safety.
Opportunity
Opportunity Score · How does the current price compare with estimated value?
17
Avoid
Based on current valuation, company quality, recent trends, and available market signals.
View score details →
Model Outlook
12-month model · What does the model think happens next?
21/100
Building Historical Record
Model Score 21/100 — estimates relative performance potential, distinct from the overall Wall Street Score and the separate Company Quality score.
Probability unavailable — the model has not produced a calibrated probability yet.
Click for full breakdown →
WSS View
The quick read
The overall Wall Street Score is low across its combined quality, valuation and risk inputs. This can reflect an expensive share price, business weaknesses, or both; check Company Quality and the category breakdown before drawing a conclusion.
At today’s price, the WSS valuation framework currently reads as less attractive based on the available valuation and market data.
The model outlook is currently cautious.
What we like
No strong positive signal is being highlighted from the currently available summary data.
What to watch
•Debt service risk
•Valuation is a weaker part of the current profile
•Revenue fundamentals are weak
•Debt / balance-sheet profile needs attention
•Asset quality is a weaker factor
Company-specific research
Questions worth answering for MRNA
Research inputs 100% complete
These questions are generated from this company's current financial and score data so the page adds context instead of treating the headline score as a stand-alone conclusion.
•Can MRNA maintain its current revenue growth rate and improve the amount of that revenue that turns into earnings and cash?
•How long can MRNA fund negative free cash flow using its current cash position before it may need more debt or new shares?
•Does MRNA's balance between cash and debt leave enough flexibility if business conditions weaken?
•What specifically needs to improve for MRNA to reach sustainable profitability?
•What future growth or profitability would be needed to justify MRNA's current valuation?
Two different market-behavior signals. Momentum measures direction and trend strength. Volatility measures how large and unstable the price moves are, regardless of direction.
A high momentum score means price has been trending upward with confirming short- and medium-term strength. A low score means downward or weakening momentum.
Volatility = How violently is it moving?
A high volatility score means larger, less stable price swings. It can happen while a stock is rising or falling, so high volatility is not automatically bullish or bearish.
Important: the volatility score above is based on realized price volatility. Implied volatility (IV) comes from options prices and represents the market's expected future movement. Wall Street Score will keep IV separate and will only display it when a verified options-chain feed is available.
Notices for MRNA
Detected from reported data — verify before acting.
Debt service risk
Interest coverage is low (~-307.4x). Earnings may be strained to cover interest expense.
Community Sentiment
0 active · 0 total calls
0% Bullish (0) 0% Bearish (0)
No personal call yet on MRNA.
Potential upside factors
+Growth opportunities may come from revenue expansion, margin improvement, new products, market-share gains, and stronger cash flow.
+Proprietary mRNA technology platform.
+Integrated manufacturing capabilities.
Potential downside factors
−Key risks may include competition, margin pressure, debt levels, valuation risk, and changes in demand within the Biotechnology industry.
−Dependence on third-party manufacturing and supply chain.
−Intellectual property litigation and protection risks.
−Negative free cash flow may increase the need for outside financing and dilution.
These research factors come from saved company research and financial data, not community votes. They are starting points to verify against filings, not buy or sell recommendations.
Create a free account to make a call.
Scores
Click any score for full breakdown
Wall Street Score
Very Weak17/ 100
Weak (0–50)Fair (51–71)Strong (72+)
Debt
Poor
38
Debt Cost0.5%
Debt Reduction YoY-156.5%
Debt / Equity0.22x
Tap for breakdown →
Revenue
Poor
15
Revenue YoY14.6%
Revenue CAGR-46.7%
Net Margin-141.4%
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Asset
Poor
19
Asset Growth YoY-12.8%
Liquidation/Share$17.38
Net Assets/MCap0.12x
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Capital
Poor
9
Earnings Yield-4.0%
Buyback Yield1.4%
Debt Cost0.5%
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Management
Poor
0
ROIC-48.6%
ROE-46.6%
ROA-28.7%
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Moat
Fair
50
EPS Growth—
FCF/Share Growth—
Rev/Share Growth-7.6%
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Valuation
Poor
0
Intrinsic Value—
Value Reference—
MOS—
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Buffett
Poor
23
Revenue15
Moat50
Valuation0
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MOS
Poor
0
MOS %—
Value Reference—
Deep Discount Reference—
Tap for breakdown →
Financial
Poor
20
Interest Coverage-307.4x
ROIC-48.6%
FCF Yield-2.6%
Tap for breakdown →
Master
Poor
19
Financial20
Valuation0
Debt38
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Resilience
Poor
30
Survival Years2.8 yrs
Current Ratio3.29x
FCF Margin-106.2%
Tap for breakdown →
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Score Changes
3 historical score records available
Previous Score
17
Oct 1, 2026
Change
-0.1
points
Current Score
17
Oct 5, 2026
Category Changes
Revenue0
Debt0
Assets-0.1
Capital-1.0
Management0
Moat0
Valuation0
Buffett0
MRNA decreased 0.1 points because some fundamentals weakened.
Projected Score
Projected Score
16
Projected Change
-1.0 points
Preliminary comparable-period financial changes suggest decline of approximately 1.0 points. This is a projected estimate, not the official WallStreetScore.
Price vs. Value
Valuation unavailable
Current Price
$222.76
Model Intrinsic Value
—
Difference
—
Margin of Safety
—
Value Reference: —
Deep Discount Reference: —
Intrinsic value is not currently available for this stock, so valuation can't be calculated.
Monetary values in USD. Share counts in raw units.
Income StatementBalance SheetCash Flow
AnnualQuarterlyTTM + Annual
All rows
Free includes 3 annual periods plus available TTM; Premium includes up to 10 annual periods. History depends on available company filings. Swipe the table horizontally to see older periods. A dash means unavailable, not zero.
Line Item
TTM
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Revenue
$2.23B
$1.94B
$3.20B
$6.85B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Cost of Revenue
$2.51B
$868.0M
$1.46B
$4.69B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Gross Profit
-$280.0M
$1.08B
$1.74B
$2.15B
····
····
····
····
····
····
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Research & Development
$2.88B
$3.13B
$4.54B
$4.84B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
SG&A Expenses
$965.0M
$1.02B
$1.17B
$1.55B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Operating Expenses
$3.04B
$4.15B
$5.68B
$6.39B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
EBITDA
-$2.83B
-$2.55B
-$3.39B
-$3.28B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Operating Income
-$3.32B
-$3.07B
-$3.94B
-$4.24B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Interest Expense
$25.0M
$10.0M
$24.0M
$38.0M
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Income Before Tax
-$3.09B
-$2.77B
-$3.61B
-$3.94B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Income Tax Expense
$64.0M
$54.0M
-$46.0M
$772.0M
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Net Income
-$3.15B
-$2.82B
-$3.56B
-$4.71B
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Basic EPS
$-7.98
$-7.26
$-9.27
$-12.34
····
····
····
····
····
····
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Basic Shares
396M
389M
384M
382M
····
····
····
····
····
····
····
Diluted Shares
396M
389M
384M
382M
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····
····
····
····
····
····
Upgrade to Premium for up to 10 annual periods, where available.
Debt and cash show percentage changes versus the comparison period; margin shows the change in percentage points (pp). These are company-wide changes, not per-share amounts.
Financial Changes Since Prior Period
What Improved
Margins expanded
Cash position grew
What Weakened
Debt increased
Potential Score Impact
Positive indicators included revenue growth, cash levels, net income margin. Pressure indicators included EPS growth, debt levels. These factors may support or pressure the Revenue, Management, Financial, and Debt categories; this summary does not claim that the stored scores changed.
Stored Earnings Analysis
Revenue increased 2.1%. EPS declined 8.0%. Cash increased 34.7%. Total debt increased 73.7%. Net income margin improved by 41.7 percentage points.
Earnings-Call Transcript
Earnings-call transcript analysis is not currently available.
These results may influence future scores when the next evaluation is completed.
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all earnings history.View plans
Government disclosed trading activity is available on the Smart Money directory. Filings may be delayed and may not represent complete current holdings.
Dividend HistoryShare
Dividend History
Dividend data is not available yet. Missing data does not mean this company pays no dividend.
Predictions & Historical PerformanceShare
Conservative Projected Values
3 Years
$———.——
Premium
5 Years
$———.——
Premium
10 Years
$———.——
Premium
Conservative Projection Rate
——%
Premium
Conservative Projected Values — price projections derived from actual 10-year adjusted historical returns, conservatively adjusted and capped at 8% annually. These are distinct from the Outperformance Model Score and WallStreetScore.
Conservative Projected Values
Premium unlocks the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year conservative projected values with full calculation breakdowns based on actual historical returns.
Premium includes stored forecasts and any available evaluated results. Completed results, win rates and calibrated probabilities are shown only when supported records exist; access does not create historical outcomes.