Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
HCC · Price history
Price at last available close
$87.35
−$4.40 (-4.80%) 1M
2026-10-27
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Company & revenue
About Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
Primary reporting period: 2025-12-31 · Research updated Oct 12, 2026. A research update is not a new financial filing.
Who they are
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. specializes in the extraction and international distribution of coking coal, a critical raw material for steel production. The firm operates a pair of underground mines situated in Alabama. Its primary client base consists of blast furnace steel producers, predominantly located across Europe, South America, and Asia.
How they make money
Warrior Met Coal operates as a large-scale producer and exporter of premium hard coking coal (HCC) from underground mines in Alabama. The company generates revenue by selling this metallurgical coal to global steel manufacturers, utilizing a logistics strategy involving rail and barge transportation to reach international markets in Asia, Europe, and South America.
Products & services
Premium quality hard coking coal (HCC) used as a critical component in the steelmaking process, characterized by high strength, high fluidity, low sulfur, and low-to-medium ash content.
Brands & revenue mix
No separate brand or brand-level revenue disclosure was confirmed in the reviewed sources. This does not mean the company has no brands.
Product / operating segments
Geographic revenue
No reconciled geographic revenue breakdown was confirmed for the current research period.
Customer types
- Global steel manufacturersSource
Customer concentration
For the year ended December 31, 2025, the company reported a geographic customer mix of 48% in Asia, 37% in Europe, 14% in South America, and 1% in the U.S.
Suppliers, materials & equipment
- Mining equipment and logistics service providers — The company utilizes various rail and river transportation carriers and terminal operators to move coal; specific supplier names are not disclosed.Source
Strengths
Wall Street Score
Overall investment score · Quality, value, risk and opportunity
36
Poor
View category scores →
Company Quality
How good is the actual business—regardless of today’s stock price?
58
Fair
Financial Strength
45
Business Quality / Moat
35
Management
83
Growth Quality
83
Risk / Durability
62
Uses financial strength, moat, management, growth quality and durability. It excludes share price, P/E, market cap, intrinsic value and margin of safety.
Opportunity
Opportunity Score · How does the current price compare with estimated value?
32
Avoid
Based on current valuation, company quality, recent trends, and available market signals.
View score details →
Model Outlook
12-month model · What does the model think happens next?
40/100
Building Historical Record
Model Score 40/100 — estimates relative performance potential, distinct from the overall Wall Street Score and the separate Company Quality score.
Probability unavailable — the model has not produced a calibrated probability yet.
Click for full breakdown →
WSS View
The quick read
The overall Wall Street Score is low across its combined quality, valuation and risk inputs. This can reflect an expensive share price, business weaknesses, or both; check Company Quality and the category breakdown before drawing a conclusion.
At today’s price, the WSS valuation framework currently reads as less attractive based on the available valuation and market data.
The model outlook is currently cautious.
- •Recent buyback activity is present
- •M&A headline · Aug 24, 2026
- •Valuation is a weaker part of the current profile
- •Revenue fundamentals are weak
- •Debt / balance-sheet profile needs attention
- •Asset quality is a weaker factor
Company-specific research
Questions worth answering for HCC
These questions are generated from this company's current financial and score data so the page adds context instead of treating the headline score as a stand-alone conclusion.
- •Can HCC maintain its current revenue growth rate and improve the amount of that revenue that turns into earnings and cash?
- •How long can HCC fund negative free cash flow using its current cash position before it may need more debt or new shares?
- •Does HCC's balance between cash and debt leave enough flexibility if business conditions weaken?
- •What future growth or profitability would be needed to justify HCC's current valuation?
Essential Investment Snapshot
Wall Street Score
36
Opportunity Score
32
Market Cap
$4.61B
P/E Ratio
21.2
EPS
$4.16
52-Week High
$111.42
52-Week Low
$61.87
Beta
0.69
Intrinsic Value
$35.36
Analyst Target
$100.00
Shares Outstanding
52.6M
Total Revenue
$1.68B
Total Debt
$235.8M
Dividend Yield (TTM)
0.38%
Liquidation Value / Share
$43.54
Dividend / Share (TTM)
$0.32
Momentum & Volatility Signals
Two different market-behavior signals. Momentum measures direction and trend strength. Volatility measures how large and unstable the price moves are, regardless of direction.
Neutral / mixed momentum
Low movement
A high momentum score means price has been trending upward with confirming short- and medium-term strength. A low score means downward or weakening momentum.
A high volatility score means larger, less stable price swings. It can happen while a stock is rising or falling, so high volatility is not automatically bullish or bearish.
Important: the volatility score above is based on realized price volatility. Implied volatility (IV) comes from options prices and represents the market's expected future movement. Wall Street Score will keep IV separate and will only display it when a verified options-chain feed is available.
Notices for HCC
Detected from reported data — verify before acting.Dividend history reported
Dividend payments are recorded. Review the dates and regular/special classification below; past payments do not guarantee future dividends.
Historical repurchase activity
Reported cash flows or share-count measures indicate past repurchase activity. This does not verify an active buyback authorization or future purchases.
M&A headline · Aug 24, 2026
131,115 Shares in Warrior Met Coal $HCC Acquired by Deutsche Bank AG — This is a provider-linked headline, not an independently confirmed event. Check the article and company filings for the subject, proposed/completed status, and subsequent updates.
Defense WorldCommunity Sentiment
0 active · 0 total callsNo personal call yet on HCC.
Potential upside factors
- +Growth opportunities may come from revenue expansion, margin improvement, new products, market-share gains, and stronger cash flow.
- +Low-cost production and high-quality coal characteristics.
- +Diversified logistics strategy using multiple rail and river modalities.
Potential downside factors
- −Key risks may include competition, margin pressure, debt levels, valuation risk, and changes in demand within the Coal industry.
- −Fluctuations in global steelmaking coal prices.
- −Geopolitical events and market dynamics affecting export demand.
- −Negative free cash flow may increase the need for outside financing and dilution.
These research factors come from saved company research and financial data, not community votes. They are starting points to verify against filings, not buy or sell recommendations.
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Scores
Click any score for full breakdownWas this stock page easy to understand?
One click helps us improve the research experience. This is not tied to an investment decision.
Score Changes
4 historical score records availablePrevious Score
36
Sep 28, 2026
Change
+0.2
points
Current Score
36
Oct 1, 2026
Category Changes
HCC increased 0.2 points because Capital improved by 2 points.
Positive Contributors
- + Capital improved by 2 points
Projected Score
Projected Score
41
Projected Change
+4.8 points
Preliminary comparable-period financial changes suggest improvement of approximately 4.8 points. This is a projected estimate, not the official WallStreetScore.
Price vs. Value
OvervaluedCurrent Price
$87.35
Model Intrinsic Value
$35.36
Difference
+$51.99
+147.0% vs IV
Margin of Safety
-147.0%
Financial Charts
Revenue
Additional Metrics
Operating Cash Flow
Total Debt
Total Assets
Net Margin %
Free includes 3 annual periods plus available TTM; Premium includes up to 10 annual periods. History depends on available company filings. Swipe the table horizontally to see older periods. A dash means unavailable, not zero.
| Line Item | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.68B | $1.31B | $1.53B | $1.68B | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Cost of Revenue | $977.3M | $1.20B | $45.4M | $1.08B | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Gross Profit | $703.0M | $111.2M | $1.48B | $601.5M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Research & Development | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| SG&A Expenses | $73.3M | $65.7M | $63.1M | $51.8M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Operating Expenses | $474.3M | $65.7M | $1.22B | $60.1M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| EBITDA | $454.0M | $254.5M | $447.4M | $696.7M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Operating Income | $228.7M | $45.6M | $254.9M | $541.4M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Interest Expense | $13.4M | $9.7M | $4.3M | $18.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Income Before Tax | $228.7M | $54.4M | $283.7M | $551.4M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Income Tax Expense | $9.3M | -$2.6M | $33.1M | $72.8M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Net Income | $219.3M | $57.0M | $250.6M | $478.6M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Basic EPS | $4.16 | $1.08 | $4.79 | $9.21 | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Basic Shares | 52.83M | 52.56M | 52.29M | 51.97M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Diluted Shares | 52.87M | 52.60M | 52.34M | 52.05M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
Earnings Summary
Revenue
$509.7M
Estimate unavailable.
Revenue Beat/Miss
Not available (no estimate stored)
EPS
$1.65
Estimate unavailable.
EPS Beat/Miss
Not available (no estimate stored)
Debt Change
+0.1%
Cash Change
-21.1%
Margin Change
+15.3 pp
Debt and cash show percentage changes versus the comparison period; margin shows the change in percentage points (pp). These are company-wide changes, not per-share amounts.
Financial Changes Since Prior Period
What Improved
- Margins expanded
What Weakened
- Cash position declined
- Debt increased
Potential Score Impact
Positive indicators included revenue growth, EPS growth, net income margin. Pressure indicators included cash levels, debt levels. These factors may support or pressure the Revenue, Management, Financial, and Debt categories; this summary does not claim that the stored scores changed.
Stored Earnings Analysis
Revenue increased 70.6%. EPS increased 1400.0%. Cash declined 21.1%. Total debt increased 0.1%. Net income margin improved by 15.3 percentage points.
Earnings-Call Transcript
Earnings-call transcript analysis is not currently available.
These results may influence future scores when the next evaluation is completed.
Insider Activity
Guru / Smart Money
Guru Score
63
Smart Money
63
Number of Gurus
2
Total Guru Value
Avg Portfolio Weight
Largest Holder
Largest Holder %
New Positions
Increased Positions
Reduced Positions
Exited Positions
Net Guru Sentiment
Short Interest
Dividend History
Log in to view dividend history.
Conservative Projected Values
3 Years
$———.——
5 Years
$———.——
10 Years
$———.——
Conservative Projection Rate
——%
Conservative Projected Values — price projections derived from actual 10-year adjusted historical returns, conservatively adjusted and capped at 8% annually. These are distinct from the Outperformance Model Score and WallStreetScore.
Conservative Projected Values
Premium unlocks the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year conservative projected values with full calculation breakdowns based on actual historical returns.
Start 7-Day Free TrialHistorical Outperformance Record
Premium includes stored forecasts and any available evaluated results. Completed results, win rates and calibrated probabilities are shown only when supported records exist; access does not create historical outcomes.
Start 7-Day Free TrialHistorical Trends
4 historical recordsHistorical Score Chart
3 of 4 records shownWall Street Score
Debt Score
Revenue Score
Asset Score
Capital Score
Management Score
Moat Score
Valuation Score
Buffett Score
Intrinsic Value
Value Reference
Margin of Safety %
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Rumor Mill · HCC
Corporate developments & opportunities
No reviewed developments match this filter.
Evidence credibility is not a forecast of stock performance. Rumor Mill is separate from the WSS score.
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