Educational research only—not investment advice or a recommendation. Scores and estimates may use delayed, incomplete, restated, or corrected market and filing data. Independently verify information before making an investment decision.

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.

GONASDAQ
Wall Street Score · overall investment21/100
$12.88USD$-0.17 (-1.34%)
Company website www.groceryoutlet.com
Headquarters5650 Hollis Street, EmeryVille, CA, 94608, US
Financial statement currencyUSD · no FX conversion applied
Consumer Defensive · Grocery Stores
Price updated todayFinancials updated Oct 1, 2026

GO · Price history

Price at last available close

$12.89

+$1.79 (+16.13%) 1M

2026-10-27

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Company & revenue

About Grocery Outlet Holding Corp.

Primary reporting period: 2026-01-03 · Research updated Oct 12, 2026. A research update is not a new financial filing.

Who they are

Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates a network of retail stores across the United States, offering name-brand consumables and fresh products through independently operated locations. The company was founded by Jim Read in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.

How they make money

Grocery Outlet operates an extreme value retail model where it sources opportunistic products at significant discounts and sells them through a network of independently operated stores. The company retains ownership of the inventory and sets retail prices, while independent operators manage store-level operations, including labor and local merchandising, in exchange for a share of the store's gross profit.

Products & services

The company offers a rotating selection of opportunistic products alongside everyday staples, including grocery, produce, refrigerated and frozen foods, beer and wine, fresh meat and seafood, general merchandise, and health and beauty care items.

Brands & revenue mix

No separate brand or brand-level revenue disclosure was confirmed in the reviewed sources. This does not mean the company has no brands.

Product / operating segments

Non-PerishableUSD 2.92B62.4%

Period ended 2026-01-03Source

PerishableUSD 1.77B37.6%

Period ended 2026-01-03Source

Calculated from reported segment revenue. Check the source period and revenue basis before comparing shares. Categories can overlap and may not add to 100%.

Geographic revenue

No reconciled geographic revenue breakdown was confirmed for the current research period.

Customer types

  • Value-conscious retail consumersSource

Customer concentration

The company does not have a single customer that accounts for a significant portion of its revenue, as it operates a retail model serving individual consumers.

Suppliers, materials & equipment

  • Food and beverage manufacturers and distributors — The company sources products from a wide network of suppliers, including manufacturers and distributors, often purchasing excess inventory or close-out items.Source

Competitors

  • Conventional grocers — Traditional supermarket chains that compete on product assortment and convenience.Source
  • Discount retailers — Retailers that compete on price and value offerings.Source

Strengths

  • Unique independent operator modelSource
  • Opportunistic sourcing strategySource

Risks

  • Dependence on the ability to source opportunistic productsSource
  • Risks associated with the independent operator model and store-level performanceSource

Wall Street Score

Overall investment score · Quality, value, risk and opportunity

21

Poor

PoorElite

View category scores →

Company Quality

How good is the actual business—regardless of today’s stock price?

27

Poor

Financial Strength

32

Business Quality / Moat

44

Management

0

Growth Quality

26

Risk / Durability

29

Weak Company · Expensive Stock

Uses financial strength, moat, management, growth quality and durability. It excludes share price, P/E, market cap, intrinsic value and margin of safety.

Opportunity

Opportunity Score · How does the current price compare with estimated value?

31

Avoid

Based on current valuation, company quality, recent trends, and available market signals.

View score details →

Model Outlook

12-month model · What does the model think happens next?

36/100

Building Historical Record

Model Score 36/100 — estimates relative performance potential, distinct from the overall Wall Street Score and the separate Company Quality score.

Probability unavailable — the model has not produced a calibrated probability yet.

Click for full breakdown →

WSS View

The quick read

The overall Wall Street Score is low across its combined quality, valuation and risk inputs. This can reflect an expensive share price, business weaknesses, or both; check Company Quality and the category breakdown before drawing a conclusion.

At today’s price, the WSS valuation framework currently reads as less attractive based on the available valuation and market data.

The model outlook is currently cautious.

What we like
  • •Insider activity signal is favorable
What to watch
  • •Debt service risk
  • •Valuation is a weaker part of the current profile
  • •Revenue fundamentals are weak
  • •Debt / balance-sheet profile needs attention
  • •Asset quality is a weaker factor

Company-specific research

Questions worth answering for GO

Research inputs 100% complete

These questions are generated from this company's current financial and score data so the page adds context instead of treating the headline score as a stand-alone conclusion.

  • •Can GO maintain its current revenue growth rate and improve the amount of that revenue that turns into earnings and cash?
  • •Is GO's positive free cash flow repeatable, or is the current level being helped by temporary working-capital or spending changes?
  • •Is GO's debt load manageable relative to cash generation, interest costs and upcoming maturities?
  • •What specifically needs to improve for GO to reach sustainable profitability?
  • •What future growth or profitability would be needed to justify GO's current valuation?
Debt service risk
Business analysis: 15 days ago · Fresh

Essential Investment Snapshot

Wall Street Score

21

0–100 · Poor

Opportunity Score

31

0–100 · Poor

Market Cap

$1.28B

P/E Ratio

-2.9

EPS

$-3.88

52-Week High

$16.99

52-Week Low

$5.66

Beta

0.72

Analyst Target

$11.00

Shares Outstanding

98.0M

Total Revenue

$4.74B

Total Debt

$1.85B

Dividend

No current dividend

View dividend history

Liquidation Value / Share

$8.33

Estimated net asset value per share

Momentum & Volatility Signals

Two different market-behavior signals. Momentum measures direction and trend strength. Volatility measures how large and unstable the price moves are, regardless of direction.

0–100 market signals
Momentum
78/ 100
-9 pts / 5d

Building upward momentum

5D -1.0% · 20D +17.7% · RSI 63 · Price vs 20D avg +3.8%
Volatility
35/ 100
+8 pts / 5d

Normal movement

20D realized vol 41.5% · 60D 41.9% · Acceleration 0.99x
Momentum = Where is it going?

A high momentum score means price has been trending upward with confirming short- and medium-term strength. A low score means downward or weakening momentum.

Volatility = How violently is it moving?

A high volatility score means larger, less stable price swings. It can happen while a stock is rising or falling, so high volatility is not automatically bullish or bearish.

Important: the volatility score above is based on realized price volatility. Implied volatility (IV) comes from options prices and represents the market's expected future movement. Wall Street Score will keep IV separate and will only display it when a verified options-chain feed is available.

Notices for GO

Detected from reported data — verify before acting.

Debt service risk

Interest coverage is low (~-6.6x). Earnings may be strained to cover interest expense.

Community Sentiment

0 active · 0 total calls
0% Bullish (0) 0% Bearish (0)

No personal call yet on GO.

Potential upside factors

  • +Growth opportunities may come from revenue expansion, margin improvement, new products, market-share gains, and stronger cash flow.
  • +Unique independent operator model.
  • +Opportunistic sourcing strategy.
  • +Positive free cash flow may provide capacity to invest in growth.

Potential downside factors

  • −Key risks may include competition, margin pressure, debt levels, valuation risk, and changes in demand within the Grocery Stores industry.
  • −Dependence on the ability to source opportunistic products.
  • −Risks associated with the independent operator model and store-level performance.

These research factors come from saved company research and financial data, not community votes. They are starting points to verify against filings, not buy or sell recommendations.

Create a free account to make a call.

Scores

Click any score for full breakdown
Wall Street Score
Very Weak21/ 100
Weak (0–50)Fair (51–71)Strong (72+)

Poor

21

Tap for breakdown →

Weak

47

Debt Cost1.8%
Debt Reduction YoY-9.2%
Debt / Equity1.84x

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

28

Revenue YoY1.1%
Revenue CAGR8.7%
Net Margin-8.0%

Tap for breakdown →

Weak

49

Asset Growth YoY-2.6%
Liquidation/Share$8.33
Net Assets/MCap1.03x

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

14

Earnings Yield-34.3%
Buyback Yield2.0%
Debt Cost1.8%

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

0

ROIC-8.5%
ROE-46.7%
ROA-12.7%

Tap for breakdown →

Weak

44

EPS Growth—
FCF/Share Growth-15.9%
Rev/Share Growth8.6%

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

0

Intrinsic Value—
Value Reference—
MOS—

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

31

Revenue28
Moat44
Valuation0

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

0

MOS %—
Value Reference—
Deep Discount Reference—

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

26

Interest Coverage-6.6x
ROIC-8.5%
FCF Yield2.1%

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

14

Financial26
Valuation0
Debt47

Tap for breakdown →

Poor

22

Survival Years0.0 yrs
Current Ratio1.37x
FCF Margin0.5%

Tap for breakdown →

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Score Changes

4 historical score records available

Previous Score

21

Sep 28, 2026

Change

Unchanged

Current Score

21

Oct 1, 2026

Category Changes

Revenue0
Debt0
Assets0
Capital0
Management0
Moat0
Valuation0
Buffett0

GO score was unchanged.

Projected Score

Projected Score

23

Projected Change

+1.4 points

Preliminary comparable-period financial changes suggest improvement of approximately 1.4 points. This is a projected estimate, not the official WallStreetScore.

Price vs. Value

Valuation unavailable

Current Price

$12.88

Model Intrinsic Value

—

Difference

—

Margin of Safety

—

Value Reference: —
Deep Discount Reference: —

Intrinsic value is not currently available for this stock, so valuation can't be calculated.

Financial Charts

Revenue

2016201720182019202020212022202320242026$0$1.5B$3.0B$4.5B$6.0B

Additional Metrics

Operating Cash Flow

201620172019202120232026$0$80M$160M$240M$320M

Total Debt

201720182019202020212022202320242026$0$500M$1.0B$1.5B$2.0B

Total Assets

201720182019202020212022202320242026$0$800M$1.6B$2.4B$3.2B

Net Margin %

No data
Monetary values in USD. Share counts in raw units.

Free includes 3 annual periods plus available TTM; Premium includes up to 10 annual periods. History depends on available company filings. Swipe the table horizontally to see older periods. A dash means unavailable, not zero.

Line ItemTTM2026202420232022202120202019201820172016
Revenue$4.74B$4.69B$4.37B$3.97B····························
Cost of Revenue$3.32B$3.27B$3.05B$2.73B····························
Gross Profit$1.42B$1.42B$1.32B$1.24B····························
Research & Development$0.00$0.00$0.00$0.00····························
SG&A Expenses$1.22B$1.33B$1.24B$1.12B····························
Operating Expenses$1.22B$1.64B$1.24B$1.12B····························
EBITDA-$238.2M-$85.3M$192.3M$215.0M····························
Operating Income$198.5M-$221.7M$78.3M$125.8M····························
Interest Expense$30.9M$33.5M$28.0M$22.9M····························
Income Before Tax-$401.6M-$249.2M$56.2M$104.1M····························
Income Tax Expense-$20.3M-$24.3M$16.7M$24.6M····························
Net Income-$381.3M-$224.9M$39.5M$79.4M····························
Basic EPS$-3.88$-2.30$0.40$0.80····························
Basic Shares99.01M97.98M98.71M98.71M····························
Diluted Shares99.77M97.98M99.61M101M····························
Upgrade to Premium for up to 10 annual periods, where available.
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Earnings Summary

Estimated earnings date:Nov 3, 2026
Estimated EPS: $0.15Estimated revenue: $1.17B
Jul 4, 2026Q2FY2026

Revenue

$1.19B

Estimate unavailable.

Revenue Beat/Miss

Not available (no estimate stored)

EPS

$0.06

Estimate unavailable.

EPS Beat/Miss

Not available (no estimate stored)

Debt Change

+5.0%

Cash Change

+34.4%

Margin Change

+0.1 pp

Debt and cash show percentage changes versus the comparison period; margin shows the change in percentage points (pp). These are company-wide changes, not per-share amounts.

Financial Changes Since Prior Period

What Improved

  • Margins expanded
  • Cash position grew

What Weakened

  • Debt increased

Potential Score Impact

Positive indicators included revenue growth, EPS growth, cash levels, net income margin. Pressure indicators included debt levels. These factors may support or pressure the Revenue, Management, Financial, and Debt categories; this summary does not claim that the stored scores changed.

Stored Earnings Analysis

Revenue increased 1.1%. EPS increased 20.0%. Cash increased 34.4%. Total debt increased 5.0%. Net income margin improved by 0.1 percentage points.

Earnings-Call Transcript

Earnings-call transcript analysis is not currently available.

These results may influence future scores when the next evaluation is completed.

Upgrade to Premium to unlock all earnings history.View plans
Earnings data: 116 days ago · Stale

Insider Activity

Guru / Smart Money

Guru Score

0

Smart Money

0

Number of Gurus

0

Total Guru Value

Avg Portfolio Weight

Largest Holder

Largest Holder %

New Positions

Increased Positions

Reduced Positions

Exited Positions

Net Guru Sentiment

Short Interest

Government disclosed trading activity is available on the Smart Money directory. Filings may be delayed and may not represent complete current holdings.

Dividend History

Dividend data is not available yet. Missing data does not mean this company pays no dividend.

Conservative Projected Values

3 Years

$———.——

Premium

5 Years

$———.——

Premium

10 Years

$———.——

Premium

Conservative Projection Rate

——%

Premium

Conservative Projected Values — price projections derived from actual 10-year adjusted historical returns, conservatively adjusted and capped at 8% annually. These are distinct from the Outperformance Model Score and WallStreetScore.

Conservative Projected Values

Premium unlocks the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year conservative projected values with full calculation breakdowns based on actual historical returns.

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Historical Outperformance Record

Premium includes stored forecasts and any available evaluated results. Completed results, win rates and calibrated probabilities are shown only when supported records exist; access does not create historical outcomes.

Start 7-Day Free Trial

Historical Trends

4 historical records
Jul 23, 26Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Historical Score Chart

3 of 4 records shown
3 historical score records are shown. Start your seven-day free trial to unlock 1 more record and the complete score history.Start Free Trial

Wall Street Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Debt Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Revenue Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Asset Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Capital Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Management Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Moat Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Valuation Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Buffett Score

Aug 14, 26Sep 28, 26Oct 1, 260255075100

Intrinsic Value

No data

Value Reference

No data

Margin of Safety %

No data

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News

Rumor Mill · GO

Corporate developments & opportunities

Explore market →

No reviewed developments match this filter.

Evidence credibility is not a forecast of stock performance. Rumor Mill is separate from the WSS score.

Related Stock Research

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