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Primary reporting period: 2026-01-03 · Research updated Oct 12, 2026. A research update is not a new financial filing.
Who they are
Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. operates a network of retail stores across the United States, offering name-brand consumables and fresh products through independently operated locations. The company was founded by Jim Read in 1946 and is headquartered in Emeryville, California.
How they make money
Grocery Outlet operates an extreme value retail model where it sources opportunistic products at significant discounts and sells them through a network of independently operated stores. The company retains ownership of the inventory and sets retail prices, while independent operators manage store-level operations, including labor and local merchandising, in exchange for a share of the store's gross profit.
Products & services
The company offers a rotating selection of opportunistic products alongside everyday staples, including grocery, produce, refrigerated and frozen foods, beer and wine, fresh meat and seafood, general merchandise, and health and beauty care items.
Brands & revenue mix
No separate brand or brand-level revenue disclosure was confirmed in the reviewed sources. This does not mean the company has no brands.
Calculated from reported segment revenue. Check the source period and revenue basis before comparing shares. Categories can overlap and may not add to 100%.
Geographic revenue
No reconciled geographic revenue breakdown was confirmed for the current research period.
The company does not have a single customer that accounts for a significant portion of its revenue, as it operates a retail model serving individual consumers.
Suppliers, materials & equipment
Food and beverage manufacturers and distributors — The company sources products from a wide network of suppliers, including manufacturers and distributors, often purchasing excess inventory or close-out items.Source
Competitors
Conventional grocers — Traditional supermarket chains that compete on product assortment and convenience.Source
Discount retailers — Retailers that compete on price and value offerings.Source
Overall investment score · Quality, value, risk and opportunity
21
Poor
PoorElite
View category scores →
Company Quality
How good is the actual business—regardless of today’s stock price?
27
Poor
Financial Strength
32
Business Quality / Moat
44
Management
0
Growth Quality
26
Risk / Durability
29
Weak Company · Expensive Stock
Uses financial strength, moat, management, growth quality and durability. It excludes share price, P/E, market cap, intrinsic value and margin of safety.
Opportunity
Opportunity Score · How does the current price compare with estimated value?
31
Avoid
Based on current valuation, company quality, recent trends, and available market signals.
View score details →
Model Outlook
12-month model · What does the model think happens next?
36/100
Building Historical Record
Model Score 36/100 — estimates relative performance potential, distinct from the overall Wall Street Score and the separate Company Quality score.
Probability unavailable — the model has not produced a calibrated probability yet.
Click for full breakdown →
WSS View
The quick read
The overall Wall Street Score is low across its combined quality, valuation and risk inputs. This can reflect an expensive share price, business weaknesses, or both; check Company Quality and the category breakdown before drawing a conclusion.
At today’s price, the WSS valuation framework currently reads as less attractive based on the available valuation and market data.
The model outlook is currently cautious.
What we like
•Insider activity signal is favorable
What to watch
•Debt service risk
•Valuation is a weaker part of the current profile
•Revenue fundamentals are weak
•Debt / balance-sheet profile needs attention
•Asset quality is a weaker factor
Company-specific research
Questions worth answering for GO
Research inputs 100% complete
These questions are generated from this company's current financial and score data so the page adds context instead of treating the headline score as a stand-alone conclusion.
•Can GO maintain its current revenue growth rate and improve the amount of that revenue that turns into earnings and cash?
•Is GO's positive free cash flow repeatable, or is the current level being helped by temporary working-capital or spending changes?
•Is GO's debt load manageable relative to cash generation, interest costs and upcoming maturities?
•What specifically needs to improve for GO to reach sustainable profitability?
•What future growth or profitability would be needed to justify GO's current valuation?
Two different market-behavior signals. Momentum measures direction and trend strength. Volatility measures how large and unstable the price moves are, regardless of direction.
A high momentum score means price has been trending upward with confirming short- and medium-term strength. A low score means downward or weakening momentum.
Volatility = How violently is it moving?
A high volatility score means larger, less stable price swings. It can happen while a stock is rising or falling, so high volatility is not automatically bullish or bearish.
Important: the volatility score above is based on realized price volatility. Implied volatility (IV) comes from options prices and represents the market's expected future movement. Wall Street Score will keep IV separate and will only display it when a verified options-chain feed is available.
Notices for GO
Detected from reported data — verify before acting.
Debt service risk
Interest coverage is low (~-6.6x). Earnings may be strained to cover interest expense.
Community Sentiment
0 active · 0 total calls
0% Bullish (0) 0% Bearish (0)
No personal call yet on GO.
Potential upside factors
+Growth opportunities may come from revenue expansion, margin improvement, new products, market-share gains, and stronger cash flow.
+Unique independent operator model.
+Opportunistic sourcing strategy.
+Positive free cash flow may provide capacity to invest in growth.
Potential downside factors
−Key risks may include competition, margin pressure, debt levels, valuation risk, and changes in demand within the Grocery Stores industry.
−Dependence on the ability to source opportunistic products.
−Risks associated with the independent operator model and store-level performance.
These research factors come from saved company research and financial data, not community votes. They are starting points to verify against filings, not buy or sell recommendations.
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Scores
Click any score for full breakdown
Wall Street Score
Very Weak21/ 100
Weak (0–50)Fair (51–71)Strong (72+)
Debt
Weak
47
Debt Cost1.8%
Debt Reduction YoY-9.2%
Debt / Equity1.84x
Tap for breakdown →
Revenue
Poor
28
Revenue YoY1.1%
Revenue CAGR8.7%
Net Margin-8.0%
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Asset
Weak
49
Asset Growth YoY-2.6%
Liquidation/Share$8.33
Net Assets/MCap1.03x
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Capital
Poor
14
Earnings Yield-34.3%
Buyback Yield2.0%
Debt Cost1.8%
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Management
Poor
0
ROIC-8.5%
ROE-46.7%
ROA-12.7%
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Moat
Weak
44
EPS Growth—
FCF/Share Growth-15.9%
Rev/Share Growth8.6%
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Valuation
Poor
0
Intrinsic Value—
Value Reference—
MOS—
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Buffett
Poor
31
Revenue28
Moat44
Valuation0
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MOS
Poor
0
MOS %—
Value Reference—
Deep Discount Reference—
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Financial
Poor
26
Interest Coverage-6.6x
ROIC-8.5%
FCF Yield2.1%
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Master
Poor
14
Financial26
Valuation0
Debt47
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Resilience
Poor
22
Survival Years0.0 yrs
Current Ratio1.37x
FCF Margin0.5%
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Score Changes
4 historical score records available
Previous Score
21
Sep 28, 2026
Change
Unchanged
Current Score
21
Oct 1, 2026
Category Changes
Revenue0
Debt0
Assets0
Capital0
Management0
Moat0
Valuation0
Buffett0
GO score was unchanged.
Projected Score
Projected Score
23
Projected Change
+1.4 points
Preliminary comparable-period financial changes suggest improvement of approximately 1.4 points. This is a projected estimate, not the official WallStreetScore.
Price vs. Value
Valuation unavailable
Current Price
$12.88
Model Intrinsic Value
—
Difference
—
Margin of Safety
—
Value Reference: —
Deep Discount Reference: —
Intrinsic value is not currently available for this stock, so valuation can't be calculated.
Monetary values in USD. Share counts in raw units.
Income StatementBalance SheetCash Flow
AnnualQuarterlyTTM + Annual
All rows
Free includes 3 annual periods plus available TTM; Premium includes up to 10 annual periods. History depends on available company filings. Swipe the table horizontally to see older periods. A dash means unavailable, not zero.
Line Item
TTM
2026
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
Revenue
$4.74B
$4.69B
$4.37B
$3.97B
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Cost of Revenue
$3.32B
$3.27B
$3.05B
$2.73B
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Gross Profit
$1.42B
$1.42B
$1.32B
$1.24B
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····
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Research & Development
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
$0.00
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SG&A Expenses
$1.22B
$1.33B
$1.24B
$1.12B
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Operating Expenses
$1.22B
$1.64B
$1.24B
$1.12B
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EBITDA
-$238.2M
-$85.3M
$192.3M
$215.0M
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Operating Income
$198.5M
-$221.7M
$78.3M
$125.8M
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····
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Interest Expense
$30.9M
$33.5M
$28.0M
$22.9M
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····
····
····
····
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Income Before Tax
-$401.6M
-$249.2M
$56.2M
$104.1M
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Income Tax Expense
-$20.3M
-$24.3M
$16.7M
$24.6M
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Net Income
-$381.3M
-$224.9M
$39.5M
$79.4M
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Basic EPS
$-3.88
$-2.30
$0.40
$0.80
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Basic Shares
99.01M
97.98M
98.71M
98.71M
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Diluted Shares
99.77M
97.98M
99.61M
101M
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Upgrade to Premium for up to 10 annual periods, where available.
Debt and cash show percentage changes versus the comparison period; margin shows the change in percentage points (pp). These are company-wide changes, not per-share amounts.
Financial Changes Since Prior Period
What Improved
Margins expanded
Cash position grew
What Weakened
Debt increased
Potential Score Impact
Positive indicators included revenue growth, EPS growth, cash levels, net income margin. Pressure indicators included debt levels. These factors may support or pressure the Revenue, Management, Financial, and Debt categories; this summary does not claim that the stored scores changed.
Stored Earnings Analysis
Revenue increased 1.1%. EPS increased 20.0%. Cash increased 34.4%. Total debt increased 5.0%. Net income margin improved by 0.1 percentage points.
Earnings-Call Transcript
Earnings-call transcript analysis is not currently available.
These results may influence future scores when the next evaluation is completed.
Upgrade to Premium to unlock all earnings history.View plans
Government disclosed trading activity is available on the Smart Money directory. Filings may be delayed and may not represent complete current holdings.
Dividend HistoryShare
Dividend History
Dividend data is not available yet. Missing data does not mean this company pays no dividend.
Predictions & Historical PerformanceShare
Conservative Projected Values
3 Years
$———.——
Premium
5 Years
$———.——
Premium
10 Years
$———.——
Premium
Conservative Projection Rate
——%
Premium
Conservative Projected Values — price projections derived from actual 10-year adjusted historical returns, conservatively adjusted and capped at 8% annually. These are distinct from the Outperformance Model Score and WallStreetScore.
Conservative Projected Values
Premium unlocks the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year conservative projected values with full calculation breakdowns based on actual historical returns.
Premium includes stored forecasts and any available evaluated results. Completed results, win rates and calibrated probabilities are shown only when supported records exist; access does not create historical outcomes.