Alcoa Corporation
AA · Price history
Price at last available close
$39.93
−$2.32 (-5.49%) 1M
2026-10-27
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Company & revenue
About Alcoa Corporation
Primary reporting period: 2025-12-31 · Research updated Oct 12, 2026. A research update is not a new financial filing.
Who they are
Alcoa Corporation operates an integrated upstream aluminum business with bauxite mining, alumina refining, and aluminum smelting and casting. Its FY2025 Form 10-K reports two segments: Alumina and Aluminum, rather than three separate reportable segments. Alumina includes bauxite mining and refining, while Aluminum includes smelting, casting and most energy production assets.
How they make money
Alcoa sells bauxite, smelter-grade and non-metallurgical alumina, and primary aluminum products including ingot, billet, rod and slab. The Alumina segment also supplies its own smelters; the Aluminum segment sells metal mainly to external customers and traders. Revenue and margins are sensitive to aluminum and alumina benchmark prices, input costs, energy and currency movements.
Products & services
Alcoa mines bauxite, refines it into alumina, and smelts and casts aluminum. Bauxite supplies its own refineries and outside customers; alumina is an input for aluminum production. The FY2025 reporting segments are Alumina and Aluminum, not three separate product segments.
Brands & revenue mix
Alcoa’s primary umbrella brand for low-carbon and recycled aluminum solutions, covering its most advanced sustainable products.
Separate brand revenue is not available in this research.Source
Part of the Sustana line; low-carbon primary aluminum produced with less than 4.0 metric tons of CO2e per ton of metal.
Separate brand revenue is not available in this research.Source
Part of the Sustana line; the world’s first low-carbon alumina brand, focusing on reduced emissions intensity during refining.
Separate brand revenue is not available in this research.Source
Part of the Sustana line; aluminum products containing at least 50% recycled content.
Separate brand revenue is not available in this research.Source
Revenue share is not unit sales or a best-seller ranking. Parent brands and included sub-brands can overlap; do not add overlapping rows.
Product / operating segments
No reconciled product or operating-segment revenue breakdown is available for the current research period. Company-wide revenue remains separate from segment disclosure.
Geographic revenue
No reconciled geographic revenue breakdown was confirmed for the current research period.
Customer types
Customer categories were not separately identified in the reviewed source set.
Disclosed major customers
- Aluminum Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba)Source
Customer concentration
For the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, Alcoa reported that its aluminum products are sold to a variety of external customers and traders, with no single customer publicly disclosed as exceeding the 10% revenue threshold in its primary financial filings. Approximately 28% of group revenue in 2024-2025 was derived from third-party alumina sales to other smelters and refineries.
Business relationships & partnerships
- ELYSIS — A technology partnership with Rio Tinto to advance carbon-free aluminum smelting technology, with the first industrial-scale demonstration planned for production by 2027.Source
- IGNIS Equity Holdings, SL — A joint venture partnership to support the continued operation and strategic restructuring of the San Ciprián aluminum complex in Spain.Source
- Statkraft — Long-term electricity supply agreements to provide renewable energy to Alcoa’s Lista aluminum plant in Norway.Source
- Woodside Energy — A domestic gas supply agreement for Alcoa's Western Australian operations for the period 2027 to 2030.Source
Strengths
- Integrated supply chain — Research interpretation: mining, refining and smelting capabilities provide control across multiple stages of the aluminum value chain; this does not eliminate commodity risk.Source
Risks
- Commodity and energy exposure — Research interpretation: aluminum and alumina prices, power costs and currency changes can cause material volatility in operating results.Source
Wall Street Score
Overall investment score · Quality, value, risk and opportunity
56
Fair
View category scores →
Company Quality
How good is the actual business—regardless of today’s stock price?
61
Fair
Financial Strength
57
Business Quality / Moat
48
Management
98
Growth Quality
58
Risk / Durability
33
Uses financial strength, moat, management, growth quality and durability. It excludes share price, P/E, market cap, intrinsic value and margin of safety.
Opportunity
Opportunity Score · How does the current price compare with estimated value?
64
Fully Valued
Based on current valuation, company quality, recent trends, and available market signals.
View score details →
Model Outlook
12-month model · What does the model think happens next?
67/100
Building Historical Record
Model Score 67/100 — estimates relative performance potential, distinct from the overall Wall Street Score and the separate Company Quality score.
Probability unavailable — the model has not produced a calibrated probability yet.
Click for full breakdown →
WSS View
The quick read
The overall Wall Street Score is mixed across its combined quality, valuation and risk inputs. Review the category scores to identify what is helping or hurting the result.
At today’s price, the WSS valuation framework currently reads as moderate rather than unusually attractive.
The model outlook is currently moderate.
- •Asset quality scores strongly
No material warning is currently being highlighted from the available summary data.
Company-specific research
Questions worth answering for AA
These questions are generated from this company's current financial and score data so the page adds context instead of treating the headline score as a stand-alone conclusion.
- •Can AA maintain its current revenue growth rate and improve the amount of that revenue that turns into earnings and cash?
- •Is AA's positive free cash flow repeatable, or is the current level being helped by temporary working-capital or spending changes?
- •Does AA's balance between cash and debt leave enough flexibility if business conditions weaken?
Essential Investment Snapshot
Wall Street Score
56
Opportunity Score
64
Market Cap
$10.54B
P/E Ratio
7.0
EPS
$5.85
52-Week High
$84.38
52-Week Low
$35.12
Beta
1.74
Intrinsic Value
$51.83
Analyst Target
$60.00
Shares Outstanding
263.3M
Total Revenue
$14.31B
Total Debt
$4.82B
Dividend Yield (TTM)
1.00%
Liquidation Value / Share
$31.31
Dividend / Share (TTM)
$0.40
Momentum & Volatility Signals
Two different market-behavior signals. Momentum measures direction and trend strength. Volatility measures how large and unstable the price moves are, regardless of direction.
Strong downward momentum
Low movement
A high momentum score means price has been trending upward with confirming short- and medium-term strength. A low score means downward or weakening momentum.
A high volatility score means larger, less stable price swings. It can happen while a stock is rising or falling, so high volatility is not automatically bullish or bearish.
Important: the volatility score above is based on realized price volatility. Implied volatility (IV) comes from options prices and represents the market's expected future movement. Wall Street Score will keep IV separate and will only display it when a verified options-chain feed is available.
Notices for AA
Detected from reported data — verify before acting.Dividend history reported
Dividend payments are recorded. Review the dates and regular/special classification below; past payments do not guarantee future dividends.
Community Sentiment
0 active · 0 total callsNo personal call yet on AA.
Potential upside factors
- +Growth opportunities may come from revenue expansion, margin improvement, new products, market-share gains, and stronger cash flow.
- +Research interpretation: mining, refining and smelting capabilities provide control across multiple stages of the aluminum value chain.
- +this does not eliminate commodity risk.
- +Positive free cash flow may provide capacity to invest in growth.
Potential downside factors
- −Key risks may include competition, margin pressure, debt levels, valuation risk, and changes in demand within the Aluminum industry.
- −Research interpretation: aluminum and alumina prices, power costs and currency changes can cause material volatility in operating results.
These research factors come from saved company research and financial data, not community votes. They are starting points to verify against filings, not buy or sell recommendations.
Create a free account to make a call.
Scores
Click any score for full breakdownWas this stock page easy to understand?
One click helps us improve the research experience. This is not tied to an investment decision.
Score Changes
8 historical score records availablePrevious Score
57
Oct 16, 2026
Change
-0.6
points
Current Score
56
Oct 21, 2026
Category Changes
AA decreased 0.6 points because Management declined by 2.5 points.
Negative Contributors
- − Management declined by 2.5 points
Projected Score
Projected Score
65
Projected Change
+9.1 points
Preliminary comparable-period financial changes suggest improvement of approximately 9.1 points. This is a projected estimate, not the official WallStreetScore.
Price vs. Value
UndervaluedCurrent Price
$39.93
Model Intrinsic Value
$51.83
Difference
−$11.90
-23.0% vs IV
Margin of Safety
23.0%
Financial Charts
Revenue
Additional Metrics
Operating Cash Flow
Total Debt
Total Assets
Net Margin %
Free includes 3 annual periods plus available TTM; Premium includes up to 10 annual periods. History depends on available company filings. Swipe the table horizontally to see older periods. A dash means unavailable, not zero.
| Line Item | TTM | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $14.31B | $12.83B | $12.18B | $10.71B | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Cost of Revenue | $11.17B | $10.66B | $10.69B | $10.46B | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Gross Profit | $3.14B | $2.17B | $1.50B | $241.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Research & Development | $18.0M | $24.0M | $57.0M | $39.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| SG&A Expenses | $349.0M | $299.0M | $275.0M | $226.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Operating Expenses | $1.52B | $1.42B | $332.0M | $265.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| EBITDA | $2.42B | $1.84B | $1.09B | $155.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Operating Income | $1.61B | $758.0M | $1.17B | -$24.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Interest Expense | $129.0M | $158.0M | $156.0M | $107.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Income Before Tax | $1.62B | $1.06B | $289.0M | -$584.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Income Tax Expense | $112.0M | -$55.0M | $265.0M | $189.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Net Income | $1.53B | $1.16B | $60.0M | -$651.0M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Basic EPS | $5.85 | $4.47 | $0.28 | $-3.65 | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Basic Shares | 264M | 261M | 212M | 178M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
| Diluted Shares | 266M | 263M | 214M | 178M | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· | ···· |
Earnings Summary
Revenue
$3.70B
Estimate unavailable.
Revenue Beat/Miss
Not available (no estimate stored)
EPS
$1.81
Estimate unavailable.
EPS Beat/Miss
Not available (no estimate stored)
Debt Change
-6.5%
Cash Change
+196.8%
Margin Change
+5.3 pp
Debt and cash show percentage changes versus the comparison period; margin shows the change in percentage points (pp). These are company-wide changes, not per-share amounts.
Financial Changes Since Prior Period
What Improved
- Margins expanded
- Cash position grew
- Debt reduced
Potential Score Impact
Positive indicators included revenue growth, EPS growth, cash levels, debt levels. These factors may support or pressure the Revenue, Management, Financial, and Debt categories; this summary does not claim that the stored scores changed.
Stored Earnings Analysis
Revenue increased 23.7%. EPS increased 103.4%. Cash increased 196.8%. Total debt declined 6.5%. Net income margin improved by 5.3 percentage points.
Earnings-Call Transcript
Earnings-call transcript analysis is not currently available.
These results may influence future scores when the next evaluation is completed.
Insider Activity
Guru / Smart Money
Guru Score
14
Smart Money
14
Number of Gurus
2
Total Guru Value
Avg Portfolio Weight
Largest Holder
Largest Holder %
New Positions
Increased Positions
Reduced Positions
Exited Positions
Net Guru Sentiment
Short Interest
Dividend History
Log in to view dividend history.
Conservative Projected Values
3 Years
$———.——
5 Years
$———.——
10 Years
$———.——
Conservative Projection Rate
——%
Conservative Projected Values — price projections derived from actual 10-year adjusted historical returns, conservatively adjusted and capped at 8% annually. These are distinct from the Outperformance Model Score and WallStreetScore.
Conservative Projected Values
Premium unlocks the 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year conservative projected values with full calculation breakdowns based on actual historical returns.
Start 7-Day Free TrialHistorical Outperformance Record
Premium includes stored forecasts and any available evaluated results. Completed results, win rates and calibrated probabilities are shown only when supported records exist; access does not create historical outcomes.
Start 7-Day Free TrialHistorical Trends
8 historical recordsHistorical Score Chart
3 of 8 records shownWall Street Score
Debt Score
Revenue Score
Asset Score
Capital Score
Management Score
Moat Score
Valuation Score
Buffett Score
Intrinsic Value
Value Reference
Margin of Safety %
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Rumor Mill · AA
Corporate developments & opportunities
No reviewed developments match this filter.
Evidence credibility is not a forecast of stock performance. Rumor Mill is separate from the WSS score.
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